Aloha:

 

There's something about Kauai that inspires even the most jaded among us and energizes them from the moment they land here and lasts until the moment they leave.  Case in Point, while driving through Princeville the other day I saw a familiar sight that never fails to make me smile.  The usual walkers and joggers were getting their morning exercise on the tree lined path that meanders along Kahaku Road.  Among the athletic ones whose bodies look like exercising is an everyday thing for them, there's always several of the "not so svelte" variety  huffing and puffing with concentrated looks of purpose on their weary but happy faces.  Instinctively you know that these people might not have exercised for the last 20 years, but they are out with bells on today.  Watching them and smiling to myself, I remembered back the first time I vacationed on Kauai about 10 years ago.  That first early morning waking to the singing roosters and looking out the window at the mesmerizing splendor of the North Shore before me.  Back then, I remember a burst of energy came upon me suddenly and I vowed to myself I was going to: 1) get in shape, 2) get organized, 3) meditate more, 4) love my parents more, 5) be a better person, 6) take up Tai Chi, surfing, and maybe yoga 7) adopt an orphan, etc.   The enthusiasm for life that enveloped me kept on going until I got off the plane back in 110 degree Phoenix and normal life began again.  I never forgot the way this place made me feel, and deep down I vowed to try to return and make it my home someday.   

 

Perhaps it's all the positive or negative ions in the air, perhaps it's the warm Pacific water, or the abundant Aloha spirit,  I really don't know.  But whenever I begin to feel the magic wearing off, whenever life starts to feel ordinary again, all it takes is to see the look on the faces of the freshly arrived visitors who are seeing Kauai for the first time to put the smile back on my face and remind me again how lucky I am.

 

Since everyone talks about them so much, I would like to discuss a few things about bottoms.   Err... I mean "Real Estate Bottoms", not the other kind.  In my opinion, there is not one "Bottom", there are actually three "Bottoms".  Now before I confuse you, let me explain:  There's the "Price" bottom (the one everyone is obsessed about)  the "Volume" bottom (which unfortunately the other two bottoms cancel out anyway so forget that one for now) and the "Units Sold" bottom (the one that is near and dear to my heart).  I think we all agree the "price bottom" is still going down and will for a while longer.  However, the unit sold bottom appears to be finding some traction according to the latest stats.  This is activity that happened back in November and December and is now closing and hitting the sold stats.  As I've stated before, there is about a 3 month lag time on actual activity (buyer finding property and signing contract) and closed sales (escrow is over, buyer takes possession.  These are the stats I report to you each month from).  So in essence, we will only know the "true" sales activity bottom after it is about 3 months passed.   Get it?  Same with "Median price" bottom, it will be 3 months gone before we see it in print.  Kind of a bummer, huh?  As mentioned, the total "Volume" bottom, which is all the sales for the month clumped together into one big number doesn't really mean anything because even if units sold go up if prices keep going down it's basically a wash.  So with that in mind, let's take a look at what the numbers tell us this month, and where we might be headed:

 

Median Home Prices across the island decreased from $467K to $400K.  Eastside homes decreased from $408K to $310K.  Poipu/Koloa homes decreased from $442 to $400K.  On the westside, the median price decreased to $279K.  Interestingly, the median condo price across the island increased from $235K to $338K (price bottom hit? Hmm? Probably too early to tell.  We will need a few more months of increasing prices for it to be significant).  Vacant land increased slightly from $200K to $217K.  Lihue median condo prices also increased from $140K to $395K (don't get too excited by this number.  There have been so few condo sales in Lihue that it's really not significant anyway.)

 

Number of Sales is the bottom I think might be experiencing a turnaround.  Take a look: Across the Island houses units sold stayed steady in February at 10 homes sold. Vacant land increased by 1 from 3 to 4 lots sold.  (Vacant land is such a steal right now I wish I could buy you all a piece of land here, wrap it up and give it to you for your birthday!)  Condo unit sales increased 10 sold from 7.  Northshore homes held steady at 2 homes sold, zero vacant land sold on the North Shore.  Condo sold last month increased from the month prior 3 vs 2.  Eastside homes decreased somewhat (5 vs 3), but eastside condos increased (1 vs 4).  Poipu/Koloa home and vacant land sales both increased in February, but condo sales decreased.  So out of of 18 measures this month, 12 were steady or increasing, and 6 were decreasing.  

 

Sales Volume numbers were skewed on January stats because of a big sale on the North Shore of $13M so it's hard to decipher the combined volume numbers and the northshore volume, so let's skip those comparisons.  Most Volume numbers are way down as would be expected in a falling price market.  However, we showed an increase in volume for vacant land from last month ($560K vs $806K) Yes, hard to believe but those are total volume numbers, not median prices!  Condo volume increased from $2.4M to $4M.... nice!  Koloa Poipu area showed an increase from $885K to $1.2M.  Eastside home volume numbers were way down from $3.1M to $932K on 5 and 3 sales respectively.  East side condo increased from $235K to $771K.  Northshore condo volume increased from $975K to $2M.

 

If we take a look at the Number of total sales on the Island for February 25 sales and the numbers so far for March 21 sales.  In a perfect world we can estimate a 17% increase in units sold over last month.  That's something to get excited about.  

 

As a matter of fact, I'm feeling so good I think I'll go take a jog on Hanalei Bay.  Hopefully, I won't have a stroke since I haven't jogged in long time.  If the paramedics come looking for me, I'll be the one laying face up in the sand with a big smile from ear to ear.

 

Until Next month, your Island Realtor, AnnMarie

 

PS:  Let me know if you're coming to the island this year and want to look at property while you are here.  It's been so busy I want to make sure I have.

 

PPS:  Mortgage rates are dropping again...